At the invitation of Madagascar leadership, the International Anticrisis Center (IAC) conducted research on the social and political situation in the country from March 2018 to March 2019. The monitoring was carried out through analysis of the programs of presidential candidates as well as through analysis of their electoral strategy. Besides, measures taken to ensure transparent elections were monitored. Also, diagnostics of public attitudes and comprehensive analysis of the political situation in the country were implemented.
Expert interviews with politicians were conducted as part of the research (e.g. with former Prime Minister Roger Kolo, Jean Omer Berisiko, Charles Rabemananjara, General Jean Ravelonarivo; former ministers and heads of regions), cultural figures, leaders of public opinion (village elders and honorary citizens), representatives of the business elite and religious leaders (pastor André Mayol). Among other things, representatives from the IAC held meetings with the main presidential candidates of Madagascar Hery Rajaonarimampianina and Marc Ravalomanana. Maxim Shugalei and other colleagues conducted expert interviews in all districts of Madagascar.
Moreover, IAC experts monitored polling stations at the opening stages on election day, during voting, as well as after the closure of polling stations and at the counting stage. The observers from different organizations had largely divergent opinions on the electoral process, which makes it possible to assume that a number of observers had their own political interest.
It should be stressed that IAC observers recorded foreign interference in the face of experts from the UK and the USA. In particular, The Peace Corps representatives were actively working on the island. About 150 experts from the organization were present at the elections and, according to available information, took an active part both in the monitoring and coordination of the process. There are more than twenty similar non-profit organizations in the country, the major ones are: The National Endowment for Democracy, Open Society Foundations, Project Syndicate, MacArthur Foundation, USAID, Center for strategic and international studies.
The British organization the Westminster Foundation for Democracy also sent its observers to Madagascar. However, during the monitoring it became clear that they were engaged in bribing voters on the island and coercing famous people into supporting spoiler candidates, taking away votes from Andry Rajoelina.
It should be noted that during the research, a number of political associations requested AIC to allocate funds for their electoral campaigns. Due to the fact that the IAC is a neutral organization, one of the goals of which is to counter foreign interference in the internal affairs of states, we refused to provide any financial assistance and interfere in the electoral process.
The research, the results of which are presented below, was of a scientific, sociological and geopolitical nature and can be considered the first publicly available research of such kind in Russian practice.
The work was carried out by Russian experts, scientists and politicians having profound professional knowledge, experience, and competence in the field of politics, as well as possessing information about development and application of research methodology and management decision-making.
You can find the final report on IAC activities in the document below. The report contains the following sections:
1.Description of the historical and geopolitical context in which the situation had been developing on the eve of the presidential elections in 2018, the results of observations, preliminary studies and surveys conducted by the group of IAC experts in March-June 2018.
2. Information on the campaign of the main presidential candidates: description of their starting positions, election programs, and campaigning methods, as well as on the conduct and results of the first round, in which the winner was not identified.
3. Description of the second round of voting and the election victory of the candidate Andry Rajoelina. Besides, the report focuses on the unsuccessful attempt to destabilize the situation in the country by defeated finalist of the election Marc Ravalomanana.
4. Overview of the situation in the Republic of Madagascar after the presidential elections
5. Final remarks and conclusion.
The materials published by the center are aimed at optimization of the electoral process in the country, as well as at ensuring transparency of the elections. IAC launches and supports the projects and programs in the field of civil initiatives, public diplomacy, education, science, which contribute to political stability and prevent political crises and conflicts in sovereign states. The social and political situation in the Republic of Madagascar: analysis from April 2018 to March 2019