General national and provincial elections were held in the Republic of South Africa on May 8. Citizens elected members of Parliament and representatives of local authorities. The Electoral Commission continues to count citizens’ votes. It is expected that the final results will be published on May 11, however, the victory of the African National Congress (ANC) is already an indisputable fact.
The outcome is quite clear: since 1994 ANC has been the ruling party of South Africa, which defeated the apartheid regime led by Nelson Mandela.
Nevertheless, the 2019 election has become the worst election for the ANC in 25 years. What seems to be the reason? South Africa is one of the most developed African countries with the most advanced democratic institutions. But the problems are snowballing: high unemployment and crime rates, lack of confidence in law enforcement agencies, including the police, incessant corruption allegation against authorities. These and other factors of the socio-economic situation in the country have been investigated by the IAC monitoring mission.
An important factor that influenced voters’ opinion was the activity of foreign organizations interested in a radical change in the balance of political forces and seeking to fuel the contradictions between different groups of the South African population. Just prior to polling day, it became clear that these efforts had led to rising racist sentiments (among both black, white and coloured population) and growing ethnic tensions in the country.
It is known that several American NGOs have been working in the Republic against the ANC party. In particular, the work of such organizations as the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, the Open Society Foundation for South Africa, the Open Society Initiative for Southern Africa, as well as the USAID (US Agency for International Development) has been recorded. They helped other parties conduct their campaigns, counting on a change of power.
According to the CEC of South Africa as of 1:18 PM, ANC won 56.6% of the vote. Although its result in the 2014 elections was higher (69.7%), the party still remains the leader of the vote.
The Democratic Alliance came second with 23.4% of the vote. DA conducted extensive work online using the standard American technology and was able to bring opponents of the current regime together. Not only experts but also rank-and-file South African citizens note that the new black leader of the party, in fact, represents the interests of the white population and copies Barack Obama’s rhetoric.
The ANC is unlikely to retain its current position. It is predicted that the party will gain less than 60%, about 55-57% of the vote. DA is most likely to rank the second with around 22% of the vote. EFF will be the last of the top three, securing 8-10% of votes. At the same time, any party with more than 0.25% of the vote will get at least one seat in Parliament.
Most probably, Cyril Ramaphosa will keep the presidential seat: it is largely due to him that ANC will be able to gain a majority of votes.
However, as the experience of other countries shows, elections are only the beginning of a new electoral cycle. Perhaps, discontent with the ruling party will be further artificially enhanced, particularly through the actions of foreign agents.
According to the experts, the ruling party is mired in bureaucracy and corruption. IAC has been studying political processes in Africa for quite a long time, encountering the same effect: complacency and the heaviest bureaucracy of political regimes. Especially if these regimes have been in power for more than 10 years. The political elite is so self-confident that it does not take any effective action. The economic and public administration possesses are slowed down, which inevitably results in stagnation and emerging problems. The political elite is often afraid to admit their own mistakes and is not ready for change.
According to international and local observers, there were practically no falsifications and violations on the voting day; the elections were fair and competitive enough.
After the publication and compilation of the result of the National elections in South Africa, we will publish a full report of the monitoring mission on the situation in South Africa in the run-up to the elections, during and after the process of expression of the will of the people on our website.
The report will spotlight the socio-political and socio-economic situation ahead of General elections, the course of election campaigns of the main political players in the country, compare the forecasts made before the elections with the final distribution of votes.
Also, in a full report the monitoring commission is ready to provide data on the impact of external actors on the course of parliamentary elections in South Africa, information on the involvement of the United States in the preparations for the elections and communication with individual officials and party representatives, as well as on financing of election activities from organizations and funds affiliated with the United States.